Thermometers cook again, chances of rain fade

The bottom line

After an unusually gloomy and unusually cool Monday for the season, summer returns in all its glory on Tuesday when the sun rises again. It will be hot and humid, 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Monday.

Tuesday is also a cold front day. That frontal boundary is very weak and starved for moisture, so we’re only seeing an isolated shower or thunderstorm. More importantly, the humidity will pick up again on Wednesday, setting us up for a day of good weather.

In fact, Wednesday seems like the only really nice day in the forecast. The disgusting and potentially dangerous heat returns on Thursday. Friday is also looking wet.

We had been tracking the possibility of rain on weekends, but the models are starting to push back on that idea. Spotty showers and thunderstorms are still forecast through the weekend, but it will be far from the drought buster we need right now.

DROUGHT UPDATE: How dry is NJ right now?

Tuesday

It’s a nice morning. Temperatures average 70 degrees throughout the state. We actually had a surprise batch of rain in South Jersey in the early morning hours, but that’s since gone. You may find some puddles and a light mist scattered around.

Tuesday will bring a return to heat and humidity. Not the dangerous stuff, just “regular” summer weather.

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Look for highs in the lower 90s in most of the state. The southwest breeze may very well override the sea breeze machine, so even mainland beaches will be warm. The skies will be bright, a mixture of sun and passing clouds.

JERSEY SHORE REPORT: Tuesday 2/8

A cold front will cross New Jersey, from north to south, Tuesday afternoon and evening. That front boundary will be quite weak and will lack moisture. We could see some spotty showers and thunderstorms, especially in North Jersey. But once again, most of the state will remain high and dry.

Behind the front Tuesday night will be quite comfortable with mostly clear clear skies. Lows should dip into the upper 60s in northern New Jersey and lower 70s in southern New Jersey.

Thermometers cook again, chances of rain fade ?w=100

Wednesday

The only truly “nice” day left in the forecast. We will be treated to lower humidity, which is always a welcome treat in the middle of summer.

Wednesday will continue to be very warm with highs in the 80s above around 90. It will be a mostly sunny and dry day. And the Jersey Shore should benefit from a prominent sea breeze, which will keep beaches cooler in the afternoon.

It all sounds like a great day. Enjoy it!

Thursday

Thursday No Be a good day, as the heat and humidity rise again. It’s going to be gross. And even downright dangerous, if you’re not careful.

Thursday’s high temperatures will soar into the mid-upper 90s. (At least 100 degrees is still up for grabs.) As dew points hover around 70, there will also be quite a bit of humidity. Therefore, the heat index will surely exceed the triple-digit mark in points on Thursday afternoon.

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With a scorching sun overhead, the pavement, cars, and spaces without air conditioning are going to be pretty brutal for Thursday afternoon. I expect heat advisories and watches to be issued for this day, assuming the forecast holds up.

friday and beyond

Things have changed a bit at the end of the week, and not in a good direction.

Friday will continue to be hot, with highs in the 90s. (I’m keeping that description intentionally vague, as I don’t have a good sense of whether it will be the lower or upper 90s just yet.)

While we had been talking about torrential rain to end the first week of August, that front complex now appears to “stuck” just before entering New Jersey. I’m sure it will still throw us some spotty showers and thunderstorms in the time frame Friday afternoon into the evening. But it’s not the full soak that we need right now. Rain totals will be on the order of a half inch, rather than more than two inches.

The first weekend of August tends to be hot, with highs nearing the 90s on Saturday and in the lower 90s on Sunday. Humidity will surely be present, so you will surely sweat a lot.

Both weekend days will also bring a chance of spotty showers and thunderstorms later in the day. While that will give us a chance to cool off (temporarily), raindrops can affect your outdoor plans. Just keep in mind that these rain chances are likely to be very unpredictable, just like any other thunderstorm threat this summer. So don’t go canceling weekend plans just yet.

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The heat and humidity will likely continue through the middle of next week, when a strong cold front brings rain and then cooler, less humid air. Long-range models paint a cooler-than-normal mid-August, with more temperatures in the 70s and 80s rather than the 90s and 100s.

NJ WEATHER CENTER: Your 5-day forecast and beyond

Dan Zarrow is chief meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. follow him on Facebook either Twitter for the latest forecast and real-time weather updates.

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